Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Background and Overview of the War

1-1　Outbreak and Initial Operations

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran under the codenames "Operation Lion’s Roar," "Operation Epic Fury," and "Operation Shield of Judah." Supreme Leader Khamenei (age 86) was killed at the outset of the operation (Yomiuri Shimbun / multiple outlets), and his son Mojtaba Khamenei (age 56) was subsequently selected as his successor.

According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), more than 2,000 targets inside Iran were struck in the first five days. The Iranian Navy was described as lying "at the bottom of the Persian Gulf" (Secretary of Defense statement / Stars and Stripes), with more than 60 vessels sunk in the first 60 days.

1-2　U.S. Stated War Objectives (Official)

The five objectives stated by President Trump on March 20, 2026 (AFP / Nikkei):

• Complete neutralization of Iran’s missile capabilities and launch infrastructure
• Destruction of Iran’s defense industrial base
• Elimination of Iran’s naval and air forces
• Prevention of Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities
• Protection of U.S. allies in the Middle East at the highest level

1-3　The Gap Between Official Statements and Reality

Source: Daily Kos / NYT (March 25, 2026) — U.S. Bases "Uninhabitable"

Source: In Deep (March 26, 2026) — Briefing omissions

Chapter 2: The Reality of Air Superiority

2-1　The F-35 Incident (Summary of Public Reporting)

CENTCOM officially stated that "over 8,000 combat sorties have been conducted and not a single aircraft has been shot down by Iran." However, CNN reported on March 20, 2026, citing multiple sources, that an F-35 made an emergency landing after sustaining what appeared to be damage from an Iranian attack. The two accounts conflict.

Source: CNN (March 20, 2026) — F-35 emergency landing

2-2　Confirmed U.S. Losses

Source: Bloomberg (March 19, 2026) — U.S. aircraft loss analysis

Chapter 3: Naval War and the Hormuz Blockade

3-1　Destruction of the Iranian Navy and Counterattacks

According to CENTCOM and multiple news outlets, U.S. forces have sunk more than 60 Iranian naval vessels. On March 4, 2026, the USS Charlotte (SSN) sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena with a Mark 48 torpedo off Sri Lanka — the first sinking of a surface warship by a U.S. submarine since World War II (Bloomberg / Stars and Stripes). Of the 180-person crew, 87 were killed and 32 were rescued.

Source: Bloomberg (March 4, 2026) — IRIS Dena sinking

Source: Stars and Stripes (March 4, 2026)

3-2　Current Status of the Strait of Hormuz

According to the Wikipedia article on the "2026 Hormuz Strait Crisis" and multiple news reports, tanker traffic fell by more than 70% at its low point, with more than 150 vessels anchored outside the strait. Oil prices surged from approximately $73/barrel before the war to nearly $120/barrel at their peak (AFP / multiple outlets).

Japan depends on the Strait of Hormuz for approximately 90% of its crude oil imports (Ministry of Foreign Affairs / METI data). According to Jiji Press, Prime Minister Takaichi told President Trump in their meeting that Japan faces "constitutional constraints" on SDF deployment, and Trump reportedly accepted this explanation.

Source: Wikipedia — 2026 Hormuz Strait Crisis

Chapter 4: Iran’s Strategic Advantage

4-1　The Logic of Attrition

Reviewing public reporting, Iran has consistently avoided large-scale offensives since the war began. Bloomberg (March 11, 2026) reported that the number of Iranian drone and missile launches fell from approximately 182 on the opening day to single digits, yet sporadic attacks have continued. Mitsubishi Research Institute (March 24, 2026) concluded that Iran’s aim is to "make the enemy feel the cost of continuing the war" — prioritizing economic and political attrition over military victory.

Source: Mitsubishi Research Institute (March 24, 2026)

4-2　Asymmetric Cost — A Structural Problem

Bloomberg (March 11, 2026) reported that the U.S. rate of interceptor missile consumption exceeds annual production capacity. The British defense think tank RUSI (March 24, 2026) estimated that ATACMS and THAAD stocks could be exhausted within one month, that Israel’s Arrow system may run out by the end of this month, and that replenishing the 500+ Tomahawks fired will take at least five years.

Source: Bloomberg (March 11, 2026) — Interceptor depletion

4-3　Russian and Chinese Support (Confirmed Reports)

The Financial Times (March 25, 2026) reported that Russia is shipping drones, medicine, and food to Iran, with delivery expected by end of month. CNN (March 11, 2026) reported that Russia is providing Iran with drone warfare tactics developed in Ukraine; President Zelensky confirmed Russian support on X the same day. Iran’s foreign minister publicly acknowledged that Russia and China are providing military cooperation as part of a "long-term strategic partnership" (AFP / multiple outlets).

Source: CNN (March 11, 2026) — Russian drone tactics support

Chapter 5: The Limits of Nuclear Deterrence

5-1　Assessment of Nuclear Use Scenarios

Israel is a nuclear power and cannot categorically rule out nuclear use in an existential crisis. However, from a military standpoint, Iran’s main forces are dispersed in underground facilities beneath the Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges, meaning nuclear strikes on cities would yield little military effect. Meanwhile, nuclear use would trigger backlash across 1.4 billion Muslims, provide Russia and China with justification for direct intervention, and provoke explosive domestic opposition in the U.S. Former U.S. Army officers including Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis and retired Col. MacGregor have publicly warned in interviews that a ground invasion would produce "catastrophic results" and is "nearly impossible."

Source: nofia.net (March 26, 2026) — Col. MacGregor’s warning

5-2　The Variable of Religious Eschatology

Prime Minister Netanyahu compared Iran to "Amalek" in a biblical sense in his March 3 speech (multiple outlets). The U.S. Secretary of Defense reportedly referenced Iran’s "prophetic Islamic delusions" (Al Jazeera). Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba is reported to be deeply invested in end-times ideology (multiple outlets); in Shia eschatology, a "final battle with Israel" is considered a prerequisite for the return of the Mahdi. The possibility that rational deterrence calculus will not apply cannot be excluded.

Source: Al Jazeera (March 4, 2026) — Religious eschatology analysis

Chapter 6: Geopolitical Consequences — The Outline of a New Order

6-1　The Possibility of Hormuz Transit Fees

Iran’s five counter-conditions for a ceasefire include "sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz" (Nikkei / multiple outlets). Bloomberg (March 25, 2026) reported, citing Iran’s Fars News Agency, that Iran has begun drafting legislation to impose transit fees on the Strait. If enacted, this would mean the world paying a structural, permanent levy to Iran — not merely dealing with a supply shock.

Source: Nikkei (March 26, 2026) — Iran’s 5 ceasefire conditions

Source: Bloomberg (March 25, 2026) — Hormuz transit fee bill draft

6-2　Post-Withdrawal Middle East Power Structure

6-3　The Paradoxical Strengthening of the Dollar

A common narrative runs: "Hormuz blockade → collapse of the petrodollar system → dollar weakening." But this may misread the actual structure.

The real chain of events is as follows. With Middle Eastern oil unavailable due to the Hormuz blockade, the world turns to U.S. shale oil and LNG as alternative suppliers. Since oil and LNG transactions are settled in dollars, the more the world buys energy from the United States, the greater the demand for dollars becomes.

This is the context for Trump’s remark that "high oil prices are good for the United States" (multiple outlets). While the Hormuz blockade appears to damage the U.S. economy at first glance, for the United States as a major energy exporter, it also represents an opportunity to expand market share now that Middle Eastern competition has been removed.

Moreover, in periods of heightened war and geopolitical risk, global capital tends to flee into the dollar as a safe haven. The 270-Year Cycle analysis projects a strong dollar through 2032 — a scenario consistent with this structure. The paradox is that the Middle East crisis may actually strengthen the dollar’s reserve currency status in the short to medium term.

China’s push for yuan-denominated oil settlement is real, but any displacement of the dollar-based global system belongs to the post-2032 long-term horizon. A scenario in which the dollar meets its end during the current crisis is not realistic.

Chapter 7: Alignment with the 270-Year Historical Cycle

The 270-Year Cycle analysis (Hiroshi Yamada / White & Green Co., 2026 public report) analyzes historical turning points for nations using composite cycles of 90, 83, and 55 years.

Source: 270-Year Cycle Analysis (Hiroshi Yamada / White & Green)

7-1　Iran’s 270-Year Cycle

7-2　America’s 270-Year Cycle Turning Points

7-3　Japan’s Cycle and Its Intersection with the Middle East Crisis

Chapter 8: Short-Term Scenario Analysis (April–June 2026)

This chapter organizes four scenarios for the most likely near-term developments over the next 1–3 months, based on public reporting as of March 27, 2026.

Key Variable: Iran’s Improving Missile Penetration Rate

Bloomberg (March 26, 2026) reported that despite more than three weeks of intensive airstrikes, Iran retains vast missile stockpiles and is expected to use them more efficiently from hardened eastern bases. Analysts estimate that up to one-quarter (approximately 25%) of Iranian missiles are now reaching their targets — a sharp improvement from the early days when the vast majority were intercepted. This signals a shift from mass launches to precision attrition.

Source: Bloomberg (March 26, 2026) — Iran missile penetration rate

Chapter 9: Post-U.S. Withdrawal — Middle East Power Dynamics and Global Economic Impact

The fact that 11 of 13 U.S. military bases in the region have been rendered uninhabitable is not merely "base damage." With soldiers evacuated to hotels and offices and combat operations physically difficult to sustain, this represents a de facto incremental withdrawal already in progress.

9-1　"Uninhabitable" as the Beginning of De Facto Withdrawal

The destruction of the tactical operations center at Port Shuaiba, damage to aircraft structures at Ali Al Salem Air Base, and damage to maintenance and fuel facilities at Camp Buehring — all reported by the NYT — fundamentally undermine U.S. forward deployment capability. JIIA’s analysis (March 2026) warns that "this crisis may affect U.S. strategic resource allocation, with spillover effects potentially reaching Indo-Pacific security."

Source: JIIA Strategic Comment 2026-8

9-2　Post-Withdrawal Middle East Power Map

9-3　Oil Price Trajectory: Current Status and Four Scenarios

Bloomberg (March 25, 2026) reported Brent crude above $104/barrel and WTI near $92 — approximately 40% above pre-war levels of ~$73. Bloomberg (March 26, 2026) reported that the Trump administration has conducted internal analysis of a scenario in which oil reaches $200/barrel.

Source: Bloomberg (March 26, 2026) — $200 oil scenario analysis

Source: Japan Research Institute (March 5, 2026) — Oil price scenario analysis

Cascading Impact on Japan’s Economy (NRI Estimates)

Source: Nomura Research Institute (March 13, 2026) — Japan economic impact estimates

Source: Dai-ichi Life Research Institute (March 2026)

9-4　Three Pressures Toward Withdrawal

Chapter 10: Is Iran Likely or Willing to Accept a Ceasefire?

10-1　The Current Negotiation Structure: "Talks" or "Message Exchange"?

Source: Jiji Press (March 26, 2026) — Ceasefire talks update

10-2　U.S. 15 Points vs. Iran’s 5 Counter-Conditions

Source: Yahoo Japan / Mainichi (March 25, 2026) — Ceasefire condition details

10-3　Four Reasons Iran Is in No Hurry to Reach a Ceasefire

• [Reason 1: Winning the attrition war] RUSI (March 24, 2026) estimates U.S. ATACMS and THAAD stocks could be exhausted within one month, Israeli Arrow interceptors by month’s end, and Tomahawk replenishment will take at least 5 years. Time is on Iran’s side.
• [Reason 2: Ceasefire means surrendering its leverage] Agreeing to a ceasefire means giving up its greatest bargaining chips — the Hormuz blockade, sporadic attacks, and remaining missile stockpiles.
• [Reason 3: Domestic politics cannot show "submission"] To preserve regime legitimacy, Iran cannot be seen to have yielded to U.S. pressure. The 5 counter-conditions are a reflection of this political constraint.
• [Reason 4: Israel is obstructing a ceasefire] After the U.S. presented its 15-point plan, Netanyahu reportedly ordered that "every effort be made to destroy as much of Iran’s defense industry as possible within 48 hours" (NYT, March 25, 2026). Israel strongly opposes a ceasefire before Iran’s ballistic missile threat is neutralized.

Source: fptrendy.com (March 26, 2026) — RUSI analysis and negotiation dynamics

10-4　What the "10-Tanker Passage" Signals

According to Jiji Press (March 27, 2026), President Trump announced that Iran has permitted 10 tankers to transit the Strait. This is not a full ceasefire — it is the beginning of what may be a new Iranian tactic of "managed passage," through which Iran demonstrates to the world its power to open and close the Strait at will, while gradually calibrating pressure.

10-5　Ceasefire Timing Forecast

Source: CNN (March 14, 2026) — "I’ll feel it" statement

Source: Bloomberg (March 15, 2026) — 4–6 week estimate

Chapter 11: Overall Conclusions

11-1　Final Military Assessment (Based on Public Information)

11-2　The Essence of This War

11-3　Historical Significance

The 270-Year Cycle’s projection of 2025–2032 as "the seven years between the confirmation of America’s mission’s end and the end of its hegemonic power" aligns in direction with what public reporting shows: interceptor depletion, base dysfunction, stalled ceasefire talks, and covert Russian and Chinese support. The 2026 Iran War may be recorded by historians as an event that coincided with — and accelerated — a historic turning point.

11-4　Implications for Japan

Japan faces this crisis encumbered by three structural vulnerabilities: dependence on Hormuz for ~90% of its crude oil, the Japan-U.S. alliance, and constitutional constraints on military deployment. The 270-Year Cycle’s "7-year design window" from 2026 to 2032 must be used to advance energy diversification, security autonomy, and diplomatic multipolarity.

"It took 15 years from the Black Ships to the Meiji Restoration." But this time, the historical cycle indicated the Black Ships’ arrival before they came. There is still time to prepare.