Hiroshi Yamada / White & Green Co., Ltd. | April 7, 2026
⚠️ This column is a structural analysis based on the 270-Year Civilization Cycle theory and historical analogy. It does not predict or guarantee specific future events.
Chapter 0: What Was the First Choshu Expedition? — Background for International Readers
The historical analogy at the heart of this column is the “First Choshu Expedition” of 1864 in Japan. For readers unfamiliar with Japanese history, here is a brief explanation of its structure.
In the mid-19th century, Japan was governed by a feudal military regime (the Tokugawa Shogunate) whose internal contradictions had reached their limits. Against this Shogunate, a powerful southwestern domain called Choshu raised the banner of “overthrowing the old order,” embodying a new political vision. In 1864, the Shogunate mobilized a massive coalition force of 35 domains and 150,000 troops to “subdue” Choshu. On paper, Choshu had no chance of winning.
Yet Choshu submitted without a fight. Complying with the Shogunate’s demands, it handed over four senior officials to be executed. The Shogunate declared victory and withdrew.
Approximately one month later — the rebel commander Takasugi Shinsaku launched an uprising.
Beneath the mask of submission, Choshu had been quietly completing an entirely new fighting force: the Kiheitai, or “irregular militia.” Open to volunteers regardless of social class, this force fundamentally transformed the logic of warfare from a system reserved for the samurai elite. The domain everyone assumed had been crushed went on to overthrow the Shogunate two years later, setting Japan on the path to modern transformation (the Meiji Restoration, 1868).
This structure — a weaker party using the “mask of submission” to buy time against an overwhelmingly superior old power, reorganizing beneath the surface, then relaunching — maps onto Iran in 2026 with striking precision.
Preface: The Question Our Previous Column Left Unanswered
In our March 22 column, “The Mirror of History — The US-Iran War and the Second Choshu Expedition,” we argued that “the final exercise of power by an old regime serves as proof of its own demise.”
But one question remained unanswered.
When, how, and through what sequence of events will this war end?
This column attempts to answer that question. The historical analogy at its core is not the “Second Choshu Expedition” from our previous piece, but the First Choshu Expedition — which occurred a year and a half earlier.
The date matters: April 7, 2026. If this analysis is correct, a “lull” is coming within two to three months. We are recording here, at this precise moment, what we believe will follow.
Section 1: The First Choshu Expedition — The Overlooked Event
In the history of Japan’s late feudal period, the First Choshu Expedition (1864) tends to receive less attention than the Second (1866) — because it ended without a real battle, dissolving into ambiguity.
But that very ambiguity contains the most important structural insight.
1-1: What Happened
In August 1864, following Choshu’s attack on the Imperial Palace in Kyoto, the Shogunate mobilized a massive force of 35 domains and 150,000 troops. On paper, Choshu had no chance.
Yet the result: the war ended without a single battle.
Choshu submitted. The Shogunate declared “victory” and withdrew. As proof of Choshu’s surrender, the Shogunate demanded the execution of four senior officials — the domain’s top leadership. Choshu complied.
The Shogunate believed it had won.
Approximately one month later — Takasugi Shinsaku launched his uprising.
1-2: Why Choshu Could Rise Again So Quickly
How did a domain that had supposedly been crushed recover within a month?
The answer is simple. During the period of submission, Takasugi had quietly completed the Kiheitai — an entirely new kind of fighting force.
The Kiheitai’s revolutionary quality lay in its open recruitment: farmers, merchants, and samurai alike could join. It shattered the logic of warfare as the exclusive province of the samurai class.
The Shogunate believed it had destroyed Choshu. But it had only destroyed the old Choshu. Beneath the mask of submission, an entirely new Choshu had been born.
★ The true lesson of the First Choshu Expedition: Submission was not surrender. It was a strategy to buy time for reorganization.
Section 2: Iran in 2026 — The Structural Parallel
| First Choshu Expedition (1864) | Iran War (2026) |
|---|---|
| Shogunate mobilizes 35 domains, 150,000 troops | US and Israel launch strikes with cutting-edge military force |
| Choshu appears to have no chance | Iran appears to have no chance militarily |
| Choshu publicly submits | Iran signals willingness to negotiate |
| Four senior officials handed over for execution | Offers nuclear freeze, partial Hormuz opening as ceasefire terms |
| Shogunate declares “victory” and withdraws | US / Trump declares “historic victory” |
| One month later: Takasugi launches uprising | After the lull: Iran relaunches |
| During submission: Kiheitai quietly completed | During lull: massive weapons resupply from Russia and China |
2-1: When Does the “Lull” Come?
Today is April 7, 2026. Combat is intensifying. Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal. Yet overlaying the 270-Year Cycle with the Chinese calendar cycle suggests a temporary lull is likely in June–July 2026.
This is not a ceasefire. It is a strategic submission designed to buy time for reorganization.
2-2: What Is the Modern “Kiheitai”?
Three possibilities:
① Nuclear weaponization complete — Iran’s technology was already at near-weapons-grade levels before the war. The lull may allow completion of the final step, away from international monitoring.
② Bab-el-Mandeb as a new chokepoint — Even if Hormuz partially reopens, the Houthi-controlled strait at the southern end of the Red Sea becomes the next lever.
③ A back-channel Iran-Saudi understanding — The most powerful “Kiheitai” of all. More on this below.
Section 3: The Asymmetry of Attrition — Why Time Works in Iran’s Favor
3-1: The Economics of Air Defense
Cost of one Iranian missile or drone: tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars
Cost of one US Patriot interceptor: ~$3–4 million
Cost of one THAAD interceptor: $10+ million
In 38 days of war, the coalition has intercepted thousands of projectiles. The interception cost alone likely runs into the tens of billions of dollars — while Iran’s launch costs are a fraction of that.
3-2: The Production Speed Gap
Russia, working with North Korea, has built a wartime production system capable of producing thousands of rounds of ammunition per month through the Ukraine war. That capacity can be redirected to Iran.
The US defense industry requires Congressional approval, budgeting, procurement, and production — a cycle that takes at minimum 2–3 years.
During the 1–2 month lull, Russia and China ship weapons to Iran. The US cannot match that speed. When the war resumes, Iran’s arsenals are full — and the coalition’s air defenses have been depleted by half.
★ Iran’s optimal strategy: Fight intensely now to exhaust air defense stockpiles. Use the lull to refill its own. Then restart.
Section 4: The Modern Sat-Cho Alliance — Who Is the “Ryoma”?
Between the First and Second Choshu Expeditions, one decisive event occurred: the Sat-Cho Alliance of January 1866 — uniting Choshu and Satsuma, two domains that had previously fought each other. Brokered by Sakamoto Ryoma.
The moment that alliance was sealed, the Shogunate’s fate was decided.
4-1: Who Is “Satsuma” Today?
Saudi Arabia.
Iran has been striking Saudi facilities repeatedly — Jubail burned on April 7. They appear to be maximum enemies. Yet Saudi Arabia’s true interests point elsewhere:
- The US did not protect Jubail. “America will not protect us” is now a lived reality for Riyadh.
- Saudi Arabia is quietly exploring nuclear development — a sign of profound distrust in US guarantees.
- For MBS, whose priority is the kingdom’s survival, remaining a permanent enemy of Iran is not a viable long-term strategy.
4-2: China Is “Sakamoto Ryoma”
China brokered the 2023 Saudi-Iran diplomatic normalization. That same mechanism can function again during the lull.
A back-channel understanding: Iran stops attacking Saudi facilities; Saudi Arabia gradually reduces its hosting of US military assets; China cements its role as regional power-broker.
Section 5: Scenario Timeline — April 2026 to End of 2027
| Period | Projected Development | Historical Parallel |
|---|---|---|
| Apr–May 2026 | Intensification continues. Iran exhausts coalition air defense stockpiles. | Shogunate mobilizes massive force |
| Jun–Jul 2026 | The Lull. Iran signals negotiations. US/Trump declares a “turning point.” Weapons resupply and alliance-building proceed covertly. | Choshu submits; four officials executed |
| Jun–Jul 2026 (covert) | China brokers Iran-Saudi back-channel. Massive Russian/Chinese weapons resupply. Nuclear technology preserved. | The Sat-Cho Alliance takes shape |
| Aug 2026– | Resumption. Iran restarts with full arsenals, depleted opponents, and covert alliances in place. | Takasugi launches uprising |
| Dec 2026 | Peak combat. US and Israel seek decisive victory — but the structural conditions no longer allow it. | Second Choshu Expedition; Shogunate defeated |
| Jan–Oct 2027 | Attrition war. US domestic politics reach breaking point. A political variable emerges around Trump. | Shogunate’s authority collapses post-defeat |
| Nov–Dec 2027 | Ceasefire. Back-channel message: “Trump has stepped down — please stand down.” Iran accepts, having secured its core interests. | Taisho-Hokan (Shogunate surrenders power, 1867) |
5-1: The Price of the Ceasefire
Iran’s terms: nuclear technology preserved; Hormuz “partially” opened (but not fully); sanctions nominally addressed; gradual reduction of US military presence in Gulf states.
The US calls it “diplomatic resolution.” Trump (or a successor) calls it “historic victory.”
The reality: Iran survives completely intact.
Section 6: “Feigning Defeat” — The Oldest and Most Powerful Strategy
Takasugi’s greatest genius may not have been launching the uprising — but persuading the domain to accept the mask of submission in the first place.
The art of feigning defeat is ancient: it appears in the Korean War armistice (1953), the Paris Peace Accords for Vietnam (1973), and countless historical precedents. A militarily weaker party makes the stronger party believe it has won, allows the stronger party to declare victory domestically, and uses the resulting pause to rebuild.
“Feigning defeat” is the oldest and most effective strategy available to the weaker side.
Closing: A Record Made on April 7, 2026
This column is published on April 7, 2026, for one reason: the timestamp is the evidence.
Will a lull come in June–July?
Will fighting resume in August?
Will December bring the peak of combat?
Will something happen to Trump by late 2027?
These are analysis and scenario as of today. But if they prove correct, this column — together with our March 22 piece on the Second Choshu Expedition — will stand as a record of the 270-Year Cycle framework predicting how a war ends.
Takasugi won the greatest gamble of all: the gamble of submission.
When Iran makes the same bet, the world will not notice.
Just as the Shogunate never did.
This column is part of the 270-Year Civilization Cycle series published by White & Green Co., Ltd. (white-green.jp). Please read alongside the previous column: “The Mirror of History — The US-Iran War and the Second Choshu Expedition” (March 22, 2026).
Related academic papers available on Zenodo. Paper A (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19301666) / Paper B (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19301928)