Data period: 2023–2025 (JRA) / Target jockeys: 2026 active riders only / Win ROI = theoretical return per ¥100 bet on all starters
Trainer Nakatake Kazuya Complete Betting Guide【2023–2025 JRA Data Analysis】
3-year combined win ROI: 72.8%. Turf 53% / Dirt 47% split. 2026 active jockeys: 井上敏樹 Ryusei Sakai Akira Tomita Miku Kobayashi Fuma Matsuwaka 柴田裕一 Takeshi Yokoyama 橋木太希 田口貫太 Katsuma Sameshima.
※ Signal ratings apply only to jockeys with 2026 riding records at this stable.
🚦 Distance-Based Betting Signals
◎Top Pick: ROI 100%+○Strong: ROI 80%+ & WinRate 8%+▲Watch: ROI 60%+ & WinRate 6%+×Avoid
Turf~1400m191 starts / ◎0 ○0
Win%: 10.5%Place%: 17.8%Show%: 26.2%ROI: 64.0%
💡 Overall ROI 64.0%. No ◎/○ jockeys among active riders. Consider Place/Wide bets only.
| Rating | Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | Katsuma Sameshima | 11 | 9.1% | 36.4% | 63.6% | 60.9% |
| × | 柴田裕一 | 32 | 6.2% | 9.4% | 18.8% | 28.4% |
Turf1401~1800m164 starts / ◎0 ○0
Win%: 6.7%Place%: 12.8%Show%: 21.3%ROI: 70.3%
💡 Overall ROI 70.3%. No ◎/○ jockeys among active riders. Consider Place/Wide bets only.
| Rating | Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| × | 柴田裕一 | 29 | 3.4% | 6.9% | 13.8% | 53.8% |
| × | Katsuma Sameshima | 12 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
Turf1801~2200m93 starts / ◎0 ○0
Win%: 6.5%Place%: 22.6%Show%: 35.5%ROI: 33.5%
💡 Overall ROI 33.5%. No ◎/○ jockeys among active riders. Consider Place/Wide bets only.
| Rating | Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| × | Katsuma Sameshima | 9 | 11.1% | 33.3% | 66.7% | 46.7% |
| × | 柴田裕一 | 23 | 8.7% | 21.7% | 26.1% | 20.4% |
Turf2201m+95 starts / ◎0 ○0
Win%: 11.6%Place%: 25.3%Show%: 40.0%ROI: 35.3%
💡 Overall ROI 35.3%. No ◎/○ jockeys among active riders. Consider Place/Wide bets only.
| Rating | Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| × | 柴田裕一 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Dirt~1400m202 starts / ◎1 ○1
Win%: 9.9%Place%: 20.8%Show%: 25.2%ROI: 100.3%
💡 柴田裕一 stand out with ROI of 120.6%. Primary win bet candidates.Katsuma Sameshima also show solid stats for win or place bets.ROI is stable. Overall show rate 25.2% is high — effective as place anchor.
| Rating | Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 柴田裕一 | 48 | 10.4% | 18.8% | 22.9% | 120.6% |
| ○ | Katsuma Sameshima | 8 | 12.5% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 83.8% |
Dirt1401~1800m204 starts / ◎1 ○0
Win%: 4.4%Place%: 9.3%Show%: 14.2%ROI: 63.4%
💡 柴田裕一 stand out with ROI of 110.7%. Primary win bet candidates.ROI is on a slight downward trend.
| Rating | Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 柴田裕一 | 45 | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 110.7% |
| × | Katsuma Sameshima | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| × | 田口貫太 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
※ Jockeys with fewer than 5 starts excluded. Target jockeys limited to 2026 active riders.
⚡ Trainer Betting Strategy
Actionable betting scenarios based on 2026 active jockey data.
🔴 Scenario A【Top Priority】 Dirt ~1400m
◎ Jockeys: 柴田裕一 (120.6%)
Overall ROI 100.3% / Show rate 25.2%. Bet aggressively when ◎ jockeys confirmed.
💰 Recommended: Win + Place. For long-shot ◎ jockeys, go heavier on Place/Wide.
🟡 Scenario B【Secondary】 Dirt 1401~1800m
◎ Jockeys: 柴田裕一 (110.7%)
Overall ROI 63.4% / Show rate 14.2%. Bet aggressively when ◎ jockeys confirmed.
💰 Recommended: Win + Place. For long-shot ◎ jockeys, go heavier on Place/Wide.
⚫ Conditions to Avoid
- Turf 1801~2200m (overall ROI 33.5%): No ◎/○ jockeys. Place/Wide only.
- Turf 2201m+ (overall ROI 35.3%): No ◎/○ jockeys. Place/Wide only.
📋 Jockey Substitution Checklist
| Jockey | Best Condition | Best ROI | Overall ROI | Recommended Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryusei Sakai | Turf 1401~1800m | 266.7% | 133.3% | Win◎ |
| Takeshi Yokoyama | Dirt ~1400m | 180.0% | 45.0% | Place only |
| Miku Kobayashi | Dirt ~1400m | 140.0% | 40.0% | Place only |
| 井上敏樹 | Turf 2201m+ | 130.0% | 30.0% | Place only |
| 柴田裕一 | Dirt ~1400m | 120.6% | 75.3% | Place |
| Katsuma Sameshima | Dirt ~1400m | 83.8% | 34.5% | Place only |
| 田口貫太 | 0% | 0.0% | Place only | |
| Fuma Matsuwaka | 0% | 0.0% | Place only | |
| Akira Tomita | 0% | 0.0% | Place only | |
| 橋木太希 | 0% | 0.0% | Place only |
📊 Data Details (Supporting Evidence)
Detailed stats supporting the signal ratings above.
Overall Performance by Year
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 349 | 8.0% | 18.3% | 27.2% | 83.2% |
| 2024 | 355 | 11.0% | 19.4% | 27.3% | 99.3% |
| 2025 | 311 | 4.8% | 13.5% | 19.9% | 31.0% |
| Total | 1015 | 8.1% | 17.2% | 25.0% | 72.8% |
Turf Performance by Year × Distance
Turf Sprint (~1400m)
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 64 | 10.9% | 18.8% | 25.0% | 53.3% |
| 2024 | 61 | 8.2% | 13.1% | 23.0% | 34.6% |
| 2025 | 66 | 12.1% | 21.2% | 30.3% | 101.5% |
Turf Mile (1401~1800m)
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 37 | 8.1% | 16.2% | 27.0% | 111.1% |
| 2024 | 69 | 10.1% | 17.4% | 27.5% | 95.9% |
| 2025 | 58 | 1.7% | 5.2% | 10.3% | 13.8% |
Turf Middle (1801~2200m)
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 35 | 5.7% | 22.9% | 42.9% | 45.4% |
| 2024 | 41 | 9.8% | 26.8% | 39.0% | 37.3% |
| 2025 | 17 | 0.0% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
Turf Long (2201m+)
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 33 | 9.1% | 30.3% | 51.5% | 24.5% |
| 2024 | 37 | 18.9% | 32.4% | 43.2% | 58.1% |
| 2025 | 25 | 4.0% | 8.0% | 20.0% | 15.6% |
Dirt Performance by Year × Distance
Dirt Sprint (~1400m)
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 52 | 7.7% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 28.7% |
| 2024 | 72 | 15.3% | 22.2% | 29.2% | 236.7% |
| 2025 | 78 | 6.4% | 20.5% | 25.6% | 22.3% |
Dirt Middle (1401~1800m)
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 92 | 6.5% | 9.8% | 18.5% | 85.2% |
| 2024 | 60 | 5.0% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 84.8% |
| 2025 | 52 | 0.0% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
Dirt Long (1801~2200m)
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27 | 11.1% | 25.9% | 29.6% | 361.9% |
| 2024 | 9 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 58.9% |
| 2025 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
Jockey Stats (3-Year Combined / 2026 Active Only)
| Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 柴田裕一 | 189 | 6.9% | 12.2% | 16.9% | 75.3% |
| Katsuma Sameshima | 51 | 5.9% | 23.5% | 39.2% | 34.5% |
| 田口貫太 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 井上敏樹 | 13 | 7.7% | 15.4% | 23.1% | 30.0% |
| Fuma Matsuwaka | 9 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Takeshi Yokoyama | 8 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 45.0% |
| Miku Kobayashi | 7 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 28.6% | 40.0% |
| Akira Tomita | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryusei Sakai | 6 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 133.3% |
| 橋木太希 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Key Jockey Breakdown: Turf × Dirt × Year
▶ 柴田裕一
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | — | — | ||||||||
| 2024 | 51 | 5.9% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 39.8% | 62 | 9.7% | 14.5% | 17.7% | 172.4% |
| 2025 | 38 | 5.3% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 23.9% | 38 | 5.3% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 16.1% |
| Total | 89 | 5.6% | 11.2% | 18.0% | 33.0% | 100 | 8.0% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 113.0% |
▶ Katsuma Sameshima
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 33.3% | 46.7% | 16 | 6.2% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 41.9% |
| 2024 | 14 | 7.1% | 35.7% | 64.3% | 47.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 10 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | — | ||||
| Total | 33 | 6.1% | 27.3% | 51.5% | 33.0% | 18 | 5.6% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 37.2% |
▶ 田口貫太
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
▶ 井上敏樹
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | — | — | ||||||||
| 2024 | — | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||
| 2025 | 6 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 65.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 6 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 65.0% | 7 | 0.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
▶ Fuma Matsuwaka
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | ||||
| 2024 | 6 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | — | ||||
| 2025 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | ||||
| Total | 9 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | — | ||||
▶ Takeshi Yokoyama
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 180.0% |
| 2024 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | ||||
| 2025 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | ||||
| Total | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 180.0% |
▶ Miku Kobayashi
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | — | — | ||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | ||||||||
| 2025 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 56.0% |
| Total | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 56.0% |
▶ Akira Tomita
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | — | — | ||||||||
| Total | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
▶ Ryusei Sakai
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | ||||
| 2024 | — | — | ||||||||
| 2025 | 3 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 266.7% | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 5 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 160.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
▶ 橋木太希
| Year | Turf Starts | Turf Win% | Turf Place% | Turf Show% | Turf ROI | Dirt Starts | Dirt Win% | Dirt Place% | Dirt Show% | Dirt ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | — | — | ||||||||
| 2024 | — | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||
| 2025 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Grade Race Performance (G1 / G2 / G3)
G1
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuma Matsuwaka | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
G2
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 7 | 0.0% | 14.3% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 16 | 0.0% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryusei Sakai | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fuma Matsuwaka | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Takeshi Yokoyama | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
G3
| Year | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 16 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 160.0% |
| 2025 | 19 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 21.1% | 42.1% |
| Total | 47 | 6.4% | 6.4% | 12.8% | 71.5% |
| Jockey | Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 柴田裕一 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Katsuma Sameshima | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 井上敏樹 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 田口貫太 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fuma Matsuwaka | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryusei Sakai | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 800.0% |
※ Extreme ROI values may reflect small samples with high-dividend races. Treat data with fewer than 10 starts as reference only.
※ This data is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.