— How Ii Naosuke’s Dictatorship Is Concealing a Satchō Alliance

May 2026: The True Nature of “Bakumatsu” Revealed in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Scenario Awaiting Post-Trump America

— How Ii Naosuke’s Dictatorship Is Concealing a Satchō Alliance

On March 29, I wrote on this site that “the modern Ōnin War has begun.” On April 3, I asked, “Will Iran and Saudi Arabia form a Satchō Alliance?”

Five weeks later — as of May 5, 2026 — to what extent have these two hypotheses moved onto a structural trajectory in reality? This article is that verification.

Let me state the conclusion first.

The Satchō Alliance that the April 3 piece asked “will it form?” has already formed. Not through physical destruction, but through a transformation of recognition.

And the structure that is superficially concealing the formation of this Satchō Alliance — that is the Ii Naosuke-style phase of dictatorial life-extension.

The Ōnin War (1467–1477) was an event that announced the beginning of a chaotic era. But Ii Naosuke’s dictatorship (1858–1860), which occurred 391 years later within that same chaotic era, plays a structurally distinct role. It is “the final dictatorship that uses force to extend the life of an order already beginning to collapse.”

What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz in May 2026 is structurally identical to “Ii Naosuke’s final year” at the deepest point of the Ōnin War. And after Ii Naosuke’s death, the Edo shogunate disappeared in just seven years.

Section 1: Hypothesis Verification — The Satchō Alliance Has Already Formed

In the April 3 piece, I wrote that the moment Saudi Arabia recognizes that “America cannot protect us” is the moment the structural conditions for a “Satchō Alliance” transcending 500 years of Sunni-Shia opposition would form. I posited the decisive trigger as “Saudi Arabia’s physical damage in April–May” and presented three scenarios.

The April 3 prediction was correct. However, the form of the trigger differed from what was assumed.

Not physical destruction (oil facility hits, mass civilian casualties, infrastructure devastation), but structural exposure (US military functional degradation, F-35 damage, inability to retaliate, Project Freedom failure) became the trigger for Saudi Arabia’s cognitive shift.

1.1 Saudi Arabia’s Cognitive Shift — Already Observed Signals

Independent analyst Kazuyasu Ishida (Ekkyō 3.0 Channel, 300,000+ subscribers), a specialist in Middle Eastern affairs, made important observations in his live broadcast on May 3, 2026, citing CNN reporting and on-the-ground sources.

When Ishida’s observations are cross-checked against structural signals I can independently verify, integrity is confirmed through multiple channels.

Note: Sakamoto Ryōma (1836–1867) was the samurai who brokered the secret Satchō Alliance between Satsuma and Chōshū. The Tosa domain occupied an “in-between” position — formally pro-shogunate but ultimately the architect of the Taisei Hōkan (return of political authority to the Emperor).

These signals all indicate that “Saudi Arabia’s shift in attitude is already underway.” Without waiting for physical confrontation, the Alliance of Recognition is already forming.

1.2 The Moment “Two-Faced Diplomacy” Becomes One-Faced

Ishida’s observation that “Saudi Arabia conducts omnidirectional diplomacy” is structurally important. This is identical to Satsuma’s behavior in the late Edo period.

Satsuma fought a single-handed war with Britain in 1863 (the Anglo-Satsuma War) and subsequently established an independent alliance with Britain. At the same time, it maintained surface-level vassalage to the Tokugawa shogunate. While outwardly posing as advocates of “Kōbu Gattai” (Imperial Court-Shogunate unity), it concluded a secret alliance with Chōshū in the back. This was the prelude to the 1866 Satchō Alliance.

Saudi Arabia’s current movements are completely identical to this Satsuma “two-faced diplomacy”:

• Surface: Maintaining alliance with the US, continued purchase of F-15s and Patriots, personal relationship with Trump
• Reality: Advancing reconciliation with Iran, security dialogue with China, exploration of Russian military cooperation, BRICS membership, gradual expansion of petroyuan

At some point, this “back-side” becomes the “front-side” — that is the moment the Satchō Alliance forms.

Section 2: From the Ōnin War Model to the Ii Naosuke Model — The Discovery of a Dual Structure

In the March 29 piece, I presented the Ōnin War model (from 1467). This is a macro-temporal framework (83–150 years) of “unipolar collapse → multipolar chaos → new order.” But what became clear in the verification of these five weeks is that the Ōnin War model alone cannot fully explain the events of May 2026.

What is needed is a dual structure that embeds the “Ii Naosuke phase” as a micro-layer within the Ōnin War macro-framework.

Ii Naosuke (1815–1860), 391 years after the Ōnin War, was the last dictator of the late Tokugawa shogunate. His historical position is essentially distinct from the chaotic era of the Ōnin War — he is the symbol of the final phase that uses force to extend an old order already beginning to collapse.

Section 3: Is Trump Ii Naosuke? — Six Items of Structural Parallel

Let me organize the structural parallels between Ii Naosuke and Trump. This is not a personality argument but a structural analysis of the historical role of “the last dictator of a declining era.”

Section 4: The Triple Attack of May 4–5 and “Attack Without Retaliation” — Parallel to the Sakuradamon Incident

The validity of the Ii Naosuke model is supported by extremely important structural facts observed on May 4–5.

In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran launched three consecutive attacks against the US and its allies. And — America has not retaliated.

4.1 The Facts of the Triple Attack

These facts are confirmed by multiple independent sources. BrainDead World (nofia.net, May 5, 2026 article) also documents these as a sequential triple attack.

4.2 The Absence of US Retaliation — Strategic Fact or Capability Limit?

What is notable is that, in response to these attacks, the US has not conducted retaliatory air strikes on Iranian territory. The only response the US military has publicly disclosed is “the sinking of 6–7 small boats.”

What does this mean? Three interpretations are possible.

Which interpretation is correct will be left to future verification. But what is structurally important is that, regardless of interpretation, the result is that “the physical capability limits of America as a hegemonic actor” have been exposed to public view.

4.3 Structural Parallel with the Sakuradamon Incident

On March 3, 1860, Ii Naosuke was assassinated by just 18 ronin in front of the gates of Edo Castle. This was a decisive signal that “even the shogunate’s physical security guarantee no longer holds.”

Structurally identical is the May 4, 2026 withdrawal of the US warship.

A “state that is neither war nor peace” has emerged. This is the structural feature of the deepest phase of the Ōnin War — both sides have lost the ability to achieve decisive victory, and combat continues without resolution.

Section 5: The Seven Years After Ii Naosuke’s Death — The Historical Fact of Accelerating Collapse

What happened after Ii Naosuke was killed? He was not extending the life of the shogunate — he was merely “postponing the collapse with his individual dictatorial power.” The moment he died, the postponed energy of collapse was released all at once.

Below is the timeline of the seven years and seven months from Ii Naosuke’s death to the Taisei Hōkan (Restoration of Imperial Rule).

From Ii Naosuke’s death to the Taisei Hōkan: just seven years and seven months.

What this shows is the structural law that the dictator is “a lid that delays decline,” and the moment that lid is removed, the postponed collapse advances all at once.

Section 6: The Scenario Awaiting Post-Trump America — 2026–2034

For whatever reason Trump may step down from the presidency — health, assassination, impeachment, end of term, any reason whatsoever — the structural likelihood is high that, from that moment, America’s current form of hegemony will collapse at accelerating speed.

This is not a personality argument. It is the contemporary application of the historical structural law that unfolded in the seven years after Ii Naosuke.

6.1 Why “Post-Trump” Is Decisive

Trump is, on the surface, a hardliner advocating “Make America Great Again.” But structurally, he is one who conceals America’s structural decline through force, spectacle, and personal charisma.

• Concealing the weakening of dollar hegemony with “tariff war”
• Redefining the collapse of the alliance system as “America First’s voluntary choice”
• Hiding the relative decline of military power with the narrative of “defeating the enemy”
• Temporarily unifying domestic division by “creating enemies”
• Substituting “exercise of strong authority” for the paralysis of congressional function

All of these are structurally identical to Ii Naosuke’s Ansei Purge and forceful treaty signing. The problems are not being solved — their surfacing is being suppressed by force.

And one more thing — the feature of the Trump administration is that the normal institutional functions (Congress, bureaucratic apparatus, alliance consultation mechanisms) are being replaced by Trump’s individual decisions, social media, and improvisational diplomacy. When organizational functions are bypassed for long periods, the organizations themselves lose function. The moment Trump disappears, it will take time for these organizations to recover. During that vacuum, external forces (China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran) will move without mercy.

6.2 The Six-Stage Collapse Scenario After Trump

Mapping the historical timeline after Ii Naosuke onto contemporary structures yields the following six-stage scenario.

6.3 Limits of the Ii Naosuke Model — The Impossibility of Convergence in the Nuclear Age

To regard the parallel with Ii Naosuke as perfect requires two caveats.

① “Meiji Restoration-style convergence” cannot occur in the nuclear age.

Post-Ii Naosuke Japan, after the relatively limited civil war of the Boshin War, established order under the new Meiji government. This was possible because combat technology was pre-modern, the nation was small enough to be unified, and external powers (Britain, France, US, Russia) shared the understanding that “Japan’s domestic politics is for Japan to handle.”

The contemporary US collapse scenario lacks all of these conditions. With 12,500 nuclear warheads, the interdependence of the global economy, and the entangled interests of major players (China, Russia, India, Brazil, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc.), a “clean convergence” like the Boshin War is structurally impossible.

The “nuclear taboo collapse scenario” presented in the March 29 piece is one of the consequences invited by precisely this structural impossibility.

② Ii Naosuke “died at the front line”; Trump “clings to power.”

Ii Naosuke was assassinated, but he physically vanished within two years of beginning his dictatorship. This was a factor that accelerated the collapse of the old order. Trump is currently alive and faces variables that did not exist for Ii Naosuke: age 78, succession problems (intra-Republican JD Vance vs MAGA fracturing), and personal vulnerability (Epstein documents). These variables suggest that, compared to “ten years from Ii to shogunal disappearance,” the case of Trump may bring even faster collapse, or conversely, may extend the dictatorial life-extension somewhat.

Section 7: Implications for Japan — “If Saudi Arabia Is Satsuma, Then What Is Japan?”

The analysis to this point has dealt with structural changes in the United States and the Arab world. But the readers of this site are mostly Japanese. The analysis cannot be complete without questioning our own position.

In late Edo Japan, Satsuma blazed an independent path as a great domain. Chōshū, Tosa, and Mito each made their own judgments. As the Tokugawa shogunate collapsed, each domain had to independently judge “how to survive.”

In the world order reorganization of 2026, if Saudi Arabia takes the role of Satsuma, UAE that of Tosa, Iran that of Chōshū, and China that of Sakamoto Ryōma — what role does Japan play?

7.1 Japan’s Current Position — Structural Parallel with the Aizu Domain

It is a painful analogy, but structurally Japan is close to the Aizu Domain. The Aizu Domain in late Edo:

• Maintained loyalty to the Tokugawa house to the very end
• Misread the flow of the times, believing in the possibility of “Kōbu Gattai” until the end
• Recognized the formation of the Satchō Alliance as “impossible” until the end
• Consequently, suffered the greatest sacrifice in the Boshin War (Battle of Aizu, 1868)

Ishida, in the same live broadcast, states: “Japan, instead of consecutively following America in foreign policy, should engage with various countries in ways that benefit Japan’s national interest — but Japan does not do that, does it?”

This is a structurally accurate observation. As of May 2026, Japan:

• Is not selling US Treasuries (rather, continues to draw the “joker card”)
• Has abnormally high oil dependence on the Strait of Hormuz (per Cabinet Office documents)
• Faces cascading supply constraints in naphtha, crude oil, and petrochemical products
• Is under structural pressure of gasoline at 200 yen/liter and 160–180 yen/dollar
• Is facing price hikes and production halts across all foundations of daily life — food, containers, printing inks, housing materials

These are not individual economic phenomena. They are the manifestation, at the level of daily life, of the fact that the postwar 80-year premise of “dollar hegemony, petrodollar order, US military presence in the Middle East” is disappearing within a few months.

7.2 Can Japan Position Itself in “the Next Satchō Alliance”?

The tragedy of the Aizu Domain was its loyalty to the old order without reading structural change. To prevent Japan from repeating this, we must face structural change directly.

The Japanese government’s current path as of May 2026 is clearly Option A. The Japan-US Joint Committee, Status of Forces Agreement, US Treasury holdings, and US dependence in defense procurement — all indicate the entrenchment of this path.

The tragedy of the Aizu Domain was that the personal virtue of its lord, Matsudaira Katamori (loyalty to the Tokugawa), ultimately invited the tragedy of his domain’s people. Whether Japan’s political leadership has fallen into the same structure — that is the question each individual reader of this site must answer.

Conclusion — The Essence of the Ii Naosuke Phase Within the Ōnin War

On March 29, I wrote, “the Ōnin War has begun.” On April 3, I asked, “Will the Saudi-Iran Satchō Alliance form?” Now, on May 5, I have arrived at the following recognition.

— The Ōnin War does not end. Its chaotic era progresses on a scale of 55–83 years (optimistic), 83–150 years (standard), or 200–350 years (pessimistic). The time axes presented in the March 29 piece remain valid as of May.

— But within that Ōnin War, the Ii Naosuke phase (dictatorial life-extension) ends in 7–10 years. From Ii’s assassination to the Taisei Hōkan was seven years and seven months. From the moment Trump finishes his term or steps down, until the current form of US hegemony collapses entirely — likely 7–10 years.

— Saudi Arabia has already tilted toward Iran (Kazuyasu Ishida, May 3, 2026 broadcast). Before any physical Satchō Alliance, the Alliance of Recognition has formed. This is a structural revision of the April 3 piece’s prediction, but the conclusion is the same — the 500-year wall of Sunni-Shia opposition is already beginning to crumble.

— On May 4, in the Strait of Hormuz, US Navy vessels were hit by missiles, became unable to navigate, and withdrew. America did not, or could not, retaliate. This is structurally identical to the Sakuradamon Incident — an “exposure of physical capability limits.”

— And for whatever reason Trump may step down from the presidency, from that moment, America’s current form of hegemony will collapse at accelerating speed. The historical structural law of the seven years after Ii Naosuke applies to contemporary America as well.

What we should do now is not lament, nor fear. It is to face the structure directly. The common people of Kyoto in the Ōnin War could barely recognize that they were living through the Ōnin War. The shogunate retainers after Ii Naosuke could not, until the very end, accept that they were living through the final seven years of the Edo shogunate.

We can choose not to repeat that delay in recognition. That is the only practical value the analysis on this site has continued to demonstrate.

[Breaking Update] May 5, 2026 — Will Project Freedom Become Project Deadlock?

While this piece was being written, on the morning of May 5, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X (formerly Twitter): “Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.” At the same time, Trump is preparing for his China visit (scheduled for next week), under diplomatic pressure to “resolve” the Strait of Hormuz issue before arriving in Beijing.

If Trump arrives in Beijing with the Strait unresolved, he will be diplomatically weakened in his negotiation with Xi Jinping. This is positioned on the “trajectory of acceleration toward the 2032 endpoint of the US 270-Year Chapter 2” presented in the March 29 piece, and is also a scenario in which “China’s role as Sakamoto Ryōma” presented in the April 3 piece is further reinforced.

Ishida’s live broadcast (May 3) analyzes this diplomatic pressure structure as: “The Qatar government has already announced its policy of US base withdrawal (Qatar leading among the six GCC states), and Saudi Arabia is highly likely to follow.” At the time of writing, my independently verifiable sources have not confirmed the Qatar government’s formal statement. However, regarding the validity of Ishida’s on-the-ground sources and analysis, the structural signals in Section 1 above corroborate consistency.

From May 5 to early June may be an even more important structural window than the five-week verification presented in this piece.