Can You Profit by Blindly Betting on Lemaire to Win?
── Can WHGR filtering improve your return rate? ──
Verification report: 6 top jockeys × all rides (94,249 rides) in 2024–2025
Conclusion First
Blindly betting Lemaire won’t make you money. But if you use WHGR to decide “which days NOT to bet,” the picture changes.
WHGR filtering works most effectively on Sakai Ryusei and Tosaki Keita. Conversely, Lemaire and Kawada Yuga’s raw ability overrides WHGR headwinds.
Part 1: Baseline Performance of Top Jockeys (2024–2025)
| Jockey | Rides | Wins | Win% | Fav Rate | Fav Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lemaire | 1,109 | 316 | 28.5% | 53.0% | 39.8% |
| Kawada Yuga | 986 | 246 | 24.9% | 46.2% | 35.3% |
| Take Yutaka | 1,115 | 159 | 14.3% | 21.0% | 29.5% |
| Tosaki Keita | 1,581 | 265 | 16.8% | 25.9% | 34.0% |
| Matsuyama Kohei | 1,659 | 241 | 14.5% | 15.3% | 32.4% |
| Sakai Ryusei | 1,405 | 225 | 16.0% | — | — |
Lemaire’s 28.5% win rate is extraordinary — he wins roughly 1 in 3.5 rides. But the issue is odds. With 53% of his rides going off as favorite, average win payouts are low. Overcoming JRA’s 25% takeout rate is far from easy.
Part 2: Lemaire × WHGR — No Effect
| Combined WHGR | Rides | Win% | Exacta% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| < -200 | 193 | 27.5% | 47.7% | 62.7% |
| -200 to 0 | 240 | 27.9% | 45.8% | 59.2% |
| 0 to +200 | 291 | 29.9% | 48.5% | 58.1% |
| ≥ +200 (★★) | 385 | 28.3% | 49.1% | 61.0% |
Lemaire is strong regardless of WHGR. Even in the combined-negative band, he maintains a 27.5% win rate. His ability overwhelms WHGR headwinds. Filtering Lemaire by WHGR has virtually no value.
Part 3: Kawada Yuga × WHGR — The 4/12 Disaster
Kawada, like Lemaire, shows minimal win-rate variation across WHGR bands. However, on April 12, 2026, Kawada’s jockey WHGR was -340.
4/12 Kawada Yuga — all 5 rides:
Oka Sho: #6 I Need You → 4th (top morning workout)
Wasurenagusa Sho: #6 Fortune Ride → 13th (fastest trackwork the day before)
Kyobashi S: #8 Validissimus → 15th, dead last (1st favorite, fastest morning workout of all runners at 52.6s)
Morning workouts were top-class in every race. WHGR was bottom-tier in every race. Result: lost all five.
Part 4: Sakai Ryusei — The Jockey Most Responsive to WHGR
| Combined WHGR | Rides | Win% | Exacta% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| < -200 | 303 | 12.2% | 26.1% | 38.6% |
| -200 to 0 | 287 | 15.3% | 28.9% | 37.6% |
| 0 to +200 | 421 | 18.5% | 31.1% | 41.8% |
| ≥ +200 (★★) | 394 | 16.8% | 29.9% | 42.6% |
Sakai Ryusei shows the most pronounced WHGR effect. The gap reaches 6.3 points between the negative and positive bands. Looking at jockey WHGR alone: 10.6% win rate when jockey WHGR < -200 (141 rides) vs. 18.2% when 0 to +200 (538 rides) — a 7.6 point gap.
Part 5: Tosaki Keita — 47.3% Place Rate in ★★ Band
| Combined WHGR | Rides | Win% | Exacta% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| < -200 | 305 | 17.4% | 32.8% | 42.3% |
| -200 to 0 | 362 | 15.2% | 29.0% | 39.0% |
| 0 to +200 | 500 | 15.4% | 29.8% | 41.0% |
| ≥ +200 (★★) | 414 | 19.3% | 36.2% | 47.3% |
Tosaki Keita in the ★★ band: Win rate 19.3% (+2.5pt vs overall), exacta rate 36.2% (+4.3pt), place rate 47.3% (+4.9pt) — nearly 1 in 2 finishes in the money.
Part 6: Why Doesn’t WHGR Work on Lemaire?
1. Mount quality is too high — 53% of Lemaire’s rides are favorites. Horse ability overrides WHGR headwinds.
2. Absolute riding skill — Genius-level jockeys can make horses perform regardless of energy tailwinds or headwinds.
3. Stable trust bias — Top stables only offer Lemaire and Kawada horses that can win. The sample is biased from the start.
Conversely, WHGR filtering works best on “first-class but not elite” jockeys like Sakai and Tosaki. Their mount quality varies, so energy tailwinds and headwinds translate directly into results.
Part 7: Practical Implications
When betting Lemaire or Kawada:
WHGR filtering is unnecessary. Flat betting is fine. However, on days with jockey WHGR below -300, discount them regardless of training data. This is risk management, not return optimization.
When betting Sakai Ryusei:
Skip days when jockey WHGR is negative. Win rate improves from 10.6% to 18.2%. Especially avoid win bets when jockey WHGR < -200.
When betting Tosaki Keita:
Only bet when combined WHGR ≥ +200 (★★). A 47.3% place rate can be a stable profit source.
Universal rule:
“WHGR ★★ + Training A-grade double confirmation” is the strongest signal. 4/12 results: Classpedia won the Shunrai S, Star Anis won the Oka Sho, Juuryoku Pierrot won the Wasurenagusa Sho, My Nell Enigma won the Kyobashi S.
This article is based on all JRA race data (94,249 rides) from 2024–2025.
This is not a recommendation to purchase betting tickets. All wagering is at your own risk.
White & Green Co., Ltd. / TigerProtocol WHGR System v2.1